Status: Near crest · MVCA Water Safety — check mvc.on.ca/flood-status · Flooding not expected unless status changes

People of the Lake,

Live briefing for Mississippi Lake. Gauges below are from MVCA / Water Survey of Canada. The charts include a 7-day model outlook and a 60-day review & outlook (not official forecasts).

November 1 - At a glance · vs prior day

Current lake level

134.05 m

▼ -0.5 cm

-2 cm vs historic avg
-5 cm vs early July

Historic average

134.07 m

for this date · 2014–2025
current is -2 cm vs avg

7-day outlook

134.05 m

–

-0 cm modeled change · 7 day
-1 cm modeled · 60 day

Inflow · Ferguson’s Falls

12.0

–

m³/s
into Mississippi Lake

Outflow · Appleton

12.0

▼ -0.6

m³/s
downstream of the lake

In − out gap

+0.0

▲ +0.8

m³/s · Balanced
positive = lake filling

Inflow, outflow & Mississippi lake level

Solid = last 7 days observed. Dashed = next 7 days modeled. Rain-sensitive days in forecast: no significant rain bump in current forecast. Click the chart for full screen.
Inflow, outflow, and lake level chart with projection — click to enlarge
Model: Δh ≈ k · (Qin − Qout) / A with A ≈ 25 km²; k calibrated to recent observed rise; Qin recession from peak + forecast rain bumps.

Chart data

Daily values from the chart above. Inflow = Ferguson’s Falls; outflow = Appleton. Modeled rows are the 7-day outlook (not an official forecast).

Date Lake (m MASL) Inflow (m³/s) Outflow (m³/s) Source
Oct 26134.0812.514.0Observed
Oct 27134.0712.113.7Observed
Oct 28134.0711.714.5Observed
Oct 29134.0611.614.2Observed
Oct 30134.0611.613.9Observed
Oct 31134.0611.712.6Observed
Nov 1134.0512.012.0Observed
Nov 2134.0511.611.8Modeled
Nov 3134.0511.511.6Modeled
Nov 4134.0511.411.5Modeled
Nov 5134.0511.311.4Modeled
Nov 6134.0511.211.3Modeled
Nov 7134.0511.111.2Modeled
Nov 8134.0511.011.1Modeled

60-day review & outlook

Solid = observed. Dashed = next 60 days modeled. Same storage-routing model as the 7-day chart; rain bumps apply only while a weather forecast is available, then recession only. Uncertainty widens with time. Modeled level in 60 days: 134.05 m (-1 cm from today). Lake review is 60 days. Inflow/outflow are observed for the last 31 days (WSC realtime window); older discharge is not published yet. Click the chart for full screen.
60-day inflow, outflow, and lake level chart with projection — click to enlarge
Model: Δh ≈ k · (Qin − Qout) / A with A ≈ 25 km²; k calibrated to the last ~14 observed days. Beyond the weather-forecast window this is recession only. Not an official forecast.

60-day chart data

Weekly samples from the 60-day chart (every 7th day, plus the first and last of each window). Modeled rows are the 60-day outlook (not an official forecast).

Date Lake (m MASL) Inflow (m³/s) Outflow (m³/s) Source
Sep 3134.21——Observed
Sep 6134.21——Observed
Sep 13134.17——Observed
Sep 20134.12——Observed
Sep 27134.07——Observed
Oct 4134.0211.212.6Observed
Oct 11133.998.58.0Observed
Oct 18134.0816.715.5Observed
Oct 25134.0812.914.5Observed
Nov 1134.0512.012.0Observed
Nov 2134.0511.611.8Modeled
Nov 5134.0511.311.4Modeled
Nov 12134.0510.710.7Modeled
Nov 19134.0510.210.2Modeled
Nov 26134.059.89.8Modeled
Dec 3134.059.49.5Modeled
Dec 10134.059.29.2Modeled
Dec 17134.058.99.0Modeled
Dec 24134.058.88.8Modeled
Dec 31134.058.68.6Modeled

Year-to-date Mississippi lake level

Monthly mean lake level for 2026 so far, compared with the long-term monthly average. Click the chart for full screen.
Year-to-date monthly lake level chart — click to enlarge

Watershed profile

Core chain from Crotch Lake through Mississippi Lake to Appleton, with current levels/flows and ~7-day trends. Click for full screen. Not to scale.
Mississippi watershed elevation profile with levels, flows, and 7-day trends — click to enlarge

Full watershed system

Headwaters (Shabomeka / Mazinaw) through all major dams and generating stations to the Ottawa River confluence, including side-reservoir levels where gauges report. Click for full screen. Not to scale.
Full Mississippi watershed elevation profile with dams, lake levels, flows, and 7-day trends — click to enlarge

• MVCA levels: mvc.on.ca/water-levels

• MVCA status: mvc.on.ca/flood-status · 613-253-0006 ext. 248

Disclaimer: Provisional gauges + simplified model for cottager awareness only. Not an official flood forecast.

People of the Lake · Source on GitHub · Auto-refresh via GitHub Actions (about hourly; GitHub may skip slots)